BTC Price Prediction: Bullish Momentum Amid Market Volatility

#BTC

• Technical Strength: BTC trades above key moving averages with bullish MACD and Bollinger Band signals.
• Market Sentiment: Long-term holders are profiting, but short-term risks like bearish patterns persist.
• Fundamental Drivers: Institutional interest and protocol upgrades counterbalance macroeconomic concerns.

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Bullish Signals Emerge

According to BTCC financial analyst Sophia, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $108,717.37, above its 20-day moving average (MA) of $106,687.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD (12,26,9) shows a positive momentum with the histogram at 1,164.4284, reinforcing the upward trend. The Bollinger Bands suggest a potential breakout as the price hovers near the upper band at $111,541.99, with strong support at the middle band ($106,687.04) and lower band ($101,832.09).

Market Sentiment: Mixed Signals Amid Bullish Fundamentals

BTCC financial analyst Sophia notes that while bitcoin faces short-term reversal risks due to emerging bearish patterns, long-term holders are realizing significant profits, with supply hitting record highs. Positive developments, such as the upcoming Bitcoin Core update and institutional interest from firms like MicroStrategy, counterbalance concerns like inactivity fees and global economic slowdowns. Derivatives outperforming spot trading in 2025 further highlights growing institutional participation.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Alby Wallet Faces Backlash Over Bitcoin ''Inactivity Fees''

Alby, a Bitcoin Lightning Network wallet, is under fire after users reported unexpected withdrawals labeled as ''inactivity fees.'' The controversy erupted when Yu Xian, co-founder of SlowMist, disclosed nearly $192 in BTC was deducted from his account without explicit consent. The fees, tied to a May 1 Terms of Service update, target accounts inactive for 12 months.

Community outrage escalated as additional users came forward with losses exceeding $5,400 in some cases. Critics argue the policy lacks transparency, with many claiming they missed email notifications about the changes. Luke Gao of Lnfi Network clarified Alby''s custodial wallet history, but the damage to trust appears significant.

Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Reversal Risk as Bearish Shark Pattern Emerges

Bitcoin''s recent rally shows signs of exhaustion as a bearish shark harmonic pattern forms on intraday charts. The technical setup suggests potential downside toward the point of control and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels if the value area high fails to hold.

Volume metrics reveal lackluster buyer participation during the latest upswing, casting doubt on sustainability. Market structure now hinges on whether BTC can maintain footing above critical support zones or succumbs to a healthy correction.

Bitcoin Core Developers to Remove OP_RETURN Data Limit in October Update

Bitcoin Core''s upcoming version 30 release will eliminate the 80-byte restriction on OP_RETURN outputs, allowing up to 4MB of arbitrary data per transaction. Scheduled for October 30, this change marks a significant shift in how data can be stored on the blockchain.

Critics argue the move diverges from Bitcoin''s original peer-to-peer transaction model, potentially transforming it into a data storage network. Gloria Zhao, a core contributor, emphasized that Bitcoin Core remains just one protocol implementation, subject to modification by anyone.

The decision reflects ongoing debates about Bitcoin''s scalability and utility beyond financial transactions. Market observers will watch for potential impacts on network congestion and transaction fees as the change takes effect.

Bitcoin Tests $109K Support Amid Global Economic Slowdown Forecast

Bitcoin''s bullish momentum faces a critical test as it attempts to consolidate above the $109,000 support level. The cryptocurrency, now trading within striking distance of its all-time high, could enter price discovery territory if this key technical level holds.

The World Bank''s revised 2025 growth forecast casts a shadow over markets, predicting global GDP expansion will slow to 2.3% amid rising trade barriers. This macroeconomic backdrop creates tension between inflationary pressures and expanding liquidity - forces that may determine Bitcoin''s next major move.

Traders watch the $109,000 level closely, as failure to maintain this support could trigger profit-taking after Bitcoin''s recent 12% rally. The cryptocurrency''s performance may serve as a litmus test for digital assets'' resilience during economic uncertainty.

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Reap 51% Profits as Price Stabilizes Above $72,000

Bitcoin''s long-term holders are currently enjoying substantial unrealized gains, with average profits exceeding 51%. Data from Axel Adler Jr. reveals this cohort has accumulated an additional 1.151 million BTC since prices climbed past $72,000, bringing their total holdings to 15.182 million BTC valued at approximately $125.4 billion.

The accumulation occurred primarily between $61,000 and $83,000, with an average entry point around $72,000. At current levels, these paper profits total roughly $42.5 billion—a strong vote of confidence in Bitcoin''s long-term trajectory.

Meanwhile, futures markets show signs of strain as short-term traders retreat. Open interest has declined by $1 billion alongside negative net taker volume, suggesting weakening speculative participation during this consolidation phase.

MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor Urges Apple to Shift from Stock Buybacks to Bitcoin Investments

MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor has proposed a radical shift in Apple''s capital allocation strategy, suggesting the tech giant replace its stock buyback program with Bitcoin purchases. The recommendation comes as Apple holds approximately $27 billion in cash reserves amid inflationary pressures and dollar weakness.

Saylor''s comments, made in response to Jim Cramer''s critique of Apple''s buyback efficacy, have ignited vigorous discussion across crypto communities. Advocates point to Bitcoin''s potential as an inflation hedge and store of value compared to traditional equity repurchases.

The Bitcoin evangelist previously made similar appeals to Tesla and Microsoft, reinforcing his consistent narrative about corporate treasury diversification. Online supporters have amplified the proposal through memes and speculative scenarios about Apple''s potential market impact as a trillion-dollar BTC holder.

4 Easy Ways to Earn Free Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrency investors face two perennial challenges: asset storage and growth. While volatility demands strategic attention, low-risk opportunities exist to accumulate digital assets without capital outlay. Four methods stand out for their accessibility and potential rewards.

Sweepstakes casinos emerge as an unconventional yet legitimate avenue. Unlike traditional gambling platforms requiring real-money deposits, these operate on dual virtual currencies—gold coins for play and sweep coins for redemption. Players accumulate sweep coins through daily logins, social tasks, and bonuses, convertible to Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies upon winning. This model offers gamblers a seamless transition into crypto earnings.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Hits Record High, Signaling Bullish Sentiment

Bitcoin''s long-term holder supply has surged to an all-time high of 14.46 million BTC, according to Glassnode data. These investors, defined as those holding for at least 155 days, are often viewed as strategic players who accumulate during downturns and distribute during rallies.

The record accumulation suggests strong conviction in future price appreciation. Historical patterns indicate such behavior often precedes significant upward moves. From March to June, long-term holders added roughly 500,000 BTC while short-term investors sold approximately 350,000 BTC.

Many current long-term holders entered during January''s market euphoria when prices reached $109,000. Despite enduring a 30% correction, these investors have maintained their positions through the subsequent recovery to new highs.

With long-term holders now controlling about 73% of Bitcoin''s circulating supply, their dominance underscores the potential for continued price growth. The concentration of supply in steadfast hands reduces available liquidity, typically creating favorable conditions for appreciation.

CME''s Bitcoin Futures Show Extreme Near-Term Focus as 80% of Contracts Expire by August

Institutional traders are displaying remarkable short-term focus in CME''s Bitcoin derivatives market, with 80% of open interest concentrated in contracts expiring within four weeks. The July expiry now holds the majority of leveraged positions, creating potential volatility risks if spot prices make sharp moves before settlement.

The futures term structure has flattened to its narrowest since April, with barely 1.5% separating front-month and back-month contracts. This compressed yield curve leaves little room for basis trade arbitrage and suggests minimal conviction about longer-term price direction.

Asset managers appear tightly coupled to spot ETF flows, using near-dated contracts primarily for arbitrage rather than directional bets. The market''s leverage concentration in July expiries could amplify price swings during periods of spot market turbulence.

From Bitcoin Whitepaper to ''Paper'' Bitcoin: Echoes of the 2008 Crisis?

The 2008 financial crisis was fueled by complex trading instruments like mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which collapsed under the weight of subprime mortgages. Bitcoin emerged as a response to this systemic failure, yet today, its market is increasingly dominated by derivatives and synthetic products—dubbed ''paper'' Bitcoin.

Critics argue that the proliferation of Bitcoin derivatives mirrors the pre-2008 MBS boom, raising concerns about collateralization and systemic risk. The parallels are striking: opaque instruments, leveraged speculation, and a growing disconnect between underlying assets and their paper representations.

Market participants are divided. Some see this as natural financialization, while others warn of a potential shakeout. The question isn''t whether Bitcoin will survive—it''s whether its evolution has introduced vulnerabilities reminiscent of the very crisis it sought to address.

Crypto Derivatives Outperform Spot Trading Amid Market Slowdown in 2025

Derivatives trading is proving more resilient than spot activity in the crypto markets, even as overall exchange volumes decline. March data reveals a sharp contrast: spot volumes on centralized exchanges dropped 16.6%, while derivatives saw only a 5% contraction, according to Mitrade. The downturn follows Bitcoin''s price slump, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory hurdles in the U.S. and Asia.

Active traders are increasingly favoring futures and perpetual contracts for leveraged strategies, particularly in offshore markets with lighter restrictions. Meanwhile, long-term investors continue accumulating assets through spot markets. Centralized exchanges report dwindling stablecoin balances, signaling reduced liquidity as bearish sentiment persists.

Is BTC a good investment?

Based on current technical and fundamental analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) presents a compelling investment opportunity. Below is a summary of key metrics:

Sophia emphasizes that while short-term volatility exists, long-term indicators like record holder supply and institutional demand suggest sustained growth.